Outlook worsening as production sector of economy hits trouble

Reacting to the first ONS estimates on GDP for Q3 2022, David Bharier, Head of Research at the BCC, said:  

“Today’s figures, showing a 0.2% fall in the quarterly estimate for Q3 GDP, as well as a 0.6% fall in monthly GDP, solidify the picture that the economy is moving towards recession, if not already in one. 

Worryingly, the figures show a decline across all 13 manufacturing sectors tracked by the ONS, with production output overall shrinking by 1.5%. Services as a whole have seen no growth in the quarter. 

Our research clearly shows that business confidence has fallen significantly in recent months. Inflation, driven by energy costs and supply chain disruption, is by far and away the top factor of concern, wiping out margins for many SMEs. 

With the Bank of England now forecasting a two-year recession, monetary and fiscal policy need to align to prevent stagflation. 

The Chancellor’s Autumn Statement must reassure the financial markets after the recent self-inflicted turmoil. But businesses need to see a long-term economic plan that invests in people, skills, and infrastructure and radically improves our trading relationships with key markets, not least across Europe.” 

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